The Economic Record: Biden vs. Trump
Over the past 12 months, voters have consistently identified the economy as the most important issue in the 2024 election. Accordingly, Platinum Advisors sought to assemble a side-by-side objective comparison of the last eight years to determine, across a range of economic factors, which administration enjoyed more economic success. Republicans have long claimed that Biden has been bad for the economy and that Trump’s economy was better for the everyday American. After comparing various economic indicators, these claims are overblown.
While Inflation did surge under Biden due to the pandemic and the government response to it, he beat Trump on six other factors including (1) jobs created, (2) unemployment rate, (3) manufacturing, (4) economic growth, (5) the federal deficit, and (6) wage inequality. Comparatively, Trump likely leads Biden in 3 categories including (1) inflation, which includes the rise of gas and grocery prices, (2) consumer sentiment, and (3) interest rates. There were also 2 factors that did not have a clear winner, these include (1) stock market growth and (2) home prices.
Biden leads Trump
Jobs Created
Under Biden, the US has added 15.7 million jobs, while Trump added only 6.7 million. Even when accounting for the rehiring of employees due to covid, Biden still added 6 million more jobs than existed pre-Covid. The US also added an average of 268,000 jobs/month under Biden and only 182,000/month under Trump. Biden has also helped bring manufacturing jobs to highest level in almost 20 years, surpassing the previous high set in 2020 by 186,000 jobs.
Biden leads Trump
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment around the country is lower during Biden’s best year in more counties than it was during Trump’s best year. Another indicator of a soft landing coming out of the pandemic is the reduction in the overall unemployment rate when compared to other countries. In Q2 2024, the US unemployment rate was 4% while the average rate among OECD countries is 4.9%. During the peak of the pandemic, the US unemployment rate was 13% compared to the OECD average of 8.6% (Q2, 2020). Under President Biden, the unemployment rate was the lowest in over 70 years.
Biden leads Trump
Manufacturing/Manufacturing Jobs
While Trump and Biden both had a significant number of jobs created under their terms, Biden created significantly more jobs in most sectors that saw large gains when compared to Trump. Manufacturing saw a huge surge in both investments and in jobs created, both of which have nearly doubled since Biden took office.
Biden leads Trump
Economic Growth
Both Presidents presided over sustained periods of economic growth. Trump saw multiple years of growth averaging 2.5 – 3%, above the normal rate of 2%, until the pandemic hit at the end of his term and contracted the economy. Biden started his term with a 6-month slump but has helmed the nation through one of the strongest global recoveries coming out of the pandemic. Biden saw 6% growth in 2021, 1.9% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023. GDP also rose by 22% since Biden took office, compared to 14% through the Trump Presidency.
Biden leads Trump
National Debt
The national deficit also ballooned under the Trump administration, shooting from $700 Billion to more than $1 trillion before the onset of the pandemic. COVID helped the deficit skyrocket, and it has been coming down slowly under Biden, but remains far too high at $1.8 trillion. If Trump is elected again and able to permanently extend his tax cuts, it is estimated to add another $3.9 Trillion to the deficit. In non-COVID related debt, Trump added a whopping $4.8 trillion, while Biden has added $2.2 trillion.
Biden leads Trump
Wage Inequality
Wages have grown under Biden, but increasing inflation has counteracted these gains for low-income workers. However, wage inequality is still down overall as rising wages have brought pay closer together between groups of workers.
Trump leads Biden
Inflation
As a result of the pandemic, inflation has surged under President Biden which means that workers’ paychecks do not have as much purchasing power as they did in the past. Even with wages growing faster under President Biden, they have barely outpaced inflation, leading to very small gains in real wage growth. Inflation has fallen precipitously over the past year under President Biden, from a high of 9% to the current level of 2.4%.
Trump leads Biden
Inflation (Gas Prices)
Gas prices, while they aren’t controlled directly by the president, are a topic that has been at the forefront of many voters’ minds. Gas prices never rose above $3/gallon nationally under Trump and dropped sharply during the pandemic to under $2/gallon. During the pandemic recovery, gas prices spiked in lockstep with inflation worldwide, peaking at nearly $5/gallon in the US in the summer of 2022. Prices have fallen in recent months and are on the verge of falling below $3 on average for the first time in 3 years.
Trump leads Biden
Inflation (Grocery Prices)
Grocery prices spiked under Biden’s presidency, mostly due to supply chain constraints. Prices peaked at the same time as overall inflation but they have since stabilized and have only risen 1.1% this year, compared to 13.5% in 2022.
Trump leads Biden
Consumer Sentiment
Consumers were much more confident about the state of the economy under President Trump. Whether this is a result of Trump’s economic policies, shock left over from the pandemic, or consumers weary about our economic recovery, the fact remains that Trump presided over an economy about which the American people felt much more confident.
Trump leads Biden
Interest Rates
Interest rates have also surged under Biden in response to the post-pandemic inflationary period in 2022. Interest rates are not set by the President, and the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a Trump appointee, but these rate increases were seen as necessary to bring down the high inflation rates seen in 2022. The rates are now falling for the first time, but still remain far above where they were set during Trump’s presidency.
Toss Up
Stock Market
The stock market was something President Trump always pointed to as an indicator of his economic success. And while he did preside over a period of significant growth, so has President Biden. During Trump’s first term, the market gained 70% over the 4-year period. The market has risen 50% during Biden’s term starting in 2021 and has set multiple all-time high records in recent weeks. While Trump leads Biden slightly in this category, we did not see “a stock market collapse the likes of which we’ve never had” like Trump predicted back in 2020.
Toss Up
Home Prices
Home prices have surged under President Biden, the average home price at the beginning of Trump’s presidency was just over $300k but is now over $420K. This can be a very positive development for the millions of Americans who already own a home and have seen their property values increase, however, for the millions of young Americans who have not bought a home, this makes the prospect of owning one someday that much tougher.